Risk Assessment of Arbaeen Mass Gathering in the Covid-19 Pandemic.

Introduction: Arbaeen is a religious ceremony held annually with the participation of a large number of pilgrims. During the pandemic of Covid-19, a mass gathering of Arbaeen pilgrims can strengthen the transmission of this disease and put more pressure on the health care system of countries. The aim of the study is to evaluate the risk of Arbaeen ceremony in the Covid-19 pandemic in 2021. Materials and methods: A mixed method was performed to perform the study using qualitative and quantitative methods. A national risk assessment tool was used that consisted of hazard identification and assessment, scenario development, exposure assessment, vulnerability assessment and risk estimation. The national risk assessment tool was completed through a focused group discussion and the opinions of 20 representatives of the health system and the level of risks were estimated. Data were collected, analyzed, and integrated by the research team. Results: Based on the results of risk matrix analysis, factors such as the increase in the number of new cases of COVID-19, the probability of exposure to a new variant of COVID-19, the probability of arrival of a new variant of COVID-19 to the country, the probability of increasing referrals to healthcare facilities (score 16), the probability of getting respiratory diseases, and the environmental contamination (score 12) occupied the red area of the matrix and were found to have the highest risk (unbearable risk), that needs immediate action. Conclusion: Preparing for a mass gathering such as Arbaeen is very important in order to reduce the risk of communicable disease, and the first step in improving preparedness is risk assessment and its continuity in the various stages of the ceremony. Therefore, policy makers and planners of such events should conduct risk assessments with the participation of local and national public health authorities regularly.

Prognosis of Patients with Tracheal Intubation in the Emergency Department

Background Intubation of critically ill patients is one of the increasing emergency procedures. we designed this study to determine age and sex-related mortality rates after emergency intubation. Methods This retrospective study collected and analyzed non-trauma intubated patients in a referral hospital from the years 2017 to 2019 and before the appearance of COVID-19. Patients who were intubated outside of emergency by EMS technicians were excluded. We recorded data of intubated patients, like sex, age, length of being intubated and final diagnosis. P values of less than 0.05 were significant. Results Data of 520 non-trauma intubated patients were collected and analyzed. More than 64% of the patients were over 65 years old and had a higher mortality rate (86.7%;P<0.001) than younger patients. The overall in-hospital mortality rate was 80%. More than three quarters of the decedents died within a week of intubation (P<0.001). There was no significant relationship between sex and mortality rate (P=0.535). Conclusion Our data showed that with increased age there was a decrease in the chance of being extubated.

A systematic review of health sector responses to the coincidence of disasters and COVID-19.

BACKGROUND: In December 2019, the Chinese city of Wuhan reported a novel pneumonia caused by COVID-19. While the COVID-19 pandemic has been increasingly affecting the world, the occurrence of disasters resulted in complex emergencies. The present review is aimed to identify the literature focused on health system response to coincidence of COVID-19 and disasters as well as describing their finding, implications and lessons-learned. METHODS: This study was conducted and reported based on PRISMA guideline. The databases of Web of Sciences, PubMed, Scopus, Google Scholar and World Health Organization Library were searched. The inclusion criteria were all forms of published articles which investigated the coincidence of disasters and COVID-19 pandemic. Using the title and abstract screening, the selections of studies were performed by two researchers. Once, the relevant papers were finalized, the analysis was done in two parts of descriptive analysis and implications for health systems. RESULTS: Out of 1245 studies generated by initial search, a number of 13 articles was selected for final analysis. Earthquake was the most frequent disaster which its coincidence with COVID-19 was studied by researchers (31%). The implications of researchers for healthcare system were explained in three sections of climatic events, earthquakes and all hazard approach in relation to COVID-19. CONCLUSION: Extracting the lessons learned from the regions affected by disasters at the time of COVID-19 pandemic can be helpful for healthcare professionals and policy-makers to improve their preparedness and response during disasters and a serious pandemic such as COVID-19. Further research is needed to identify the factors which strengthen the preparedness of health system for the dual risk of natural hazards and pandemics.